By Ian Ortega
The Kayoola Electric (EV) bus was officially launched by the President on Tuesday. Many think the country is making strides. Strides we are indeed, until you realize that the story is bigger at the smallest edge. Above all, this electric bus is marketed as environmentally friendly. In his interview with The Observer, the CEO of Kiira Motors Corporation, Paul Musasizi continues to recite the clean energy line. He says, “the electric bus offers a smoother and cleaner ride, experiencing less vibration and noise unlike the usual internal combustion diesel engines.” The real story about this bus is what they don’t say about it.
From the onset, I have been critical of all these electric vehicles springing out of Makerere. First, on matters of direction and second on matters of principle. Uganda doesn’t need electric buses. They are not viable. We have urgent problems to solve as a country and it’s saddening when billions are injected into solving problems that we are not facing. Secondly, the electric cars are not green; calling them green is an illusion.
For the newbies, here’s how solar-powered cars work. (http://www.carsdirect.com/green-cars/how-does-a-solar-electric-car-work and http://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/vehicles/solar-cars.htm) That said, let’s deflate the bubble that’s the Kayoola EV bus.
1. The Financial Cost
It is estimated that this 35 seater bus will cost up to $58,000 (UGX 200 million) if mass produced. The prototype cost us $140,000 (UGX480 million). Thus going by the principle of economies of scale, one gets the perspective of why it becomes cheaper with mass production. Thus, even if this bus were to really achieve economies of scale, it would still be twice more expensive than a coaster bus at current market prices.
2. The Environmental Friendly Fallacy
All the leading proponents of electric cars argue that the car is clean. I have consistently argued that an energy system cannot be considered green/clean unless its inputs are green and so are its outputs. We are only sold one side of the system-the outputs. The inputs, no one talks about them.
The car parts will still be produced in a coal-powered industry, and so will the batteries and solar panels. Henceforth, it’s clear that the production of the car will continue to result in more green-gas emissions.
Solar cells, the key component of this bus, are very seductive peppered with tiny truths and gigantic fantasies. In an era of climate change, who wouldn’t want to save the planet from extinction? It is argued that Solar photovoltaic technology brings home around four benefits. First, there is carbon dioxide reduction. These cells are virtually maintenance free and with economies of scale, they get cheaper. We can’t wish away their durability and further cost reductions due to learning from experience of mass-production.
As the saying goes, whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and think. Solar PV cells have not become cheaper with increased production. Instead, they have become more expensive. According to Ozzie Zehner, “between 2004 and 2009, the installed cost of solar photovoltaic modules actually increased—only when the financial crisis swung into full motion over subsequent years did prices soften.”
The manufacturing process of solar cells results in the emission of hexafluoroethane (c2f6), nitrogen trifluoride (nf3), and sulfur hexafluoride (sf6). Compared to carbondioxide, these three greenhouse gases make carbondioxide seem like oxygen as far as harm is concerned.
Zehner further writes in his book, “As a greenhouse gas, c2f6 is twelve thousand times more potent than co2, is 100 percent manufactured by humans, and survives ten thousand years once released into the atmosphere.30 nf3 is seventeen thousand times more virulent than co2, and sf6, the most treacherous greenhouse gas, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is twenty-five thousand times more threatening.”
Finally, when the solar panels come to their expiry dates, their dumping effects become a living day toxin. These toxic waste are the highest on the ladder of e-waste and in causing cancer to residents in areas where they are dumped.
3. The Battery Cost
When it comes to electric cars, we are told that we are saving on fuel. No one tells us that we are not saving on batteries. This Kayoola bus battery can only recharge a finite number of times before it must be replaced, at considerable expense. It is the battery step, not the “fuel” step that is the expensive part of driving an electric vehicle. The better the battery, the more expensive it gets, coupled with the costs exhuming required minerals for the production of these batteries.
4. A Road that leads Nowhere
This Kayoola EV bus shouldn’t be expected to assume the same line as a Moore’s law-curve of exponential development. Instead, the growth is asymptotic. These buses will dig deeper into our pockets, into our health and screw up the planet more than we can realize. The solution to climate change is not alternatives but reduction of our consumption habits. Perhaps, we could begin to build more pedestrian friendly cities and towns if we are serious about clean energy.
Finally, from the look of things, if our scientists think an electric bus is the solution to our problems, then we have a whole lot of delusional nerds who mistake assembling vehicles for invention and innovation. Electric cars are as old as the past two decades. There are far more pressing Ugandan problems which our scientists could focus on. They may not attract the hype, but they are surely what we need to get solved. Perhaps solar powered irrigators or the ethanol-powered vehicle of Kyambogo University would be better ventures than our misplaced electric car fantasies. Our scientists hearts may be in the right direction, but their minds are totally lost.
About The Author:
Ian Ortega is an energy enthusiast, contrarian and a graduate of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering.